Worst case scenario

Worst case scenario – personal crisis management
Words at the end of the world as we know it.
A workshop focused on crisis management.
Analyzing the big picture, finding solutions for the individual.
Think global, act local.
Study visit on a small scale farm

Dates: 19-20-21-22 september 2019

What if things go to the worse – fast. Are we prepared?  Are you prepared?
Financial crisis?
Energy crisis?
Major weather disruption?
Ecosystem failure?
Food shortage?

What are you afraid of?
We often talk about avoiding crisis, but we also need to talk about dealing with crisis. Adapting to a fast changing world – a plan based on reality – not wishful thinking, or expectations on a magical technical quick fix.

Personal resilience and self sustainability – how can it be achieved in a quickly changing world.

What are the threats to your quality of life?

Before looking at solutions we must acknowledge the true risks and possible worst case scenarios. We will avoid wishful thinking. Optimism can not change everything – What if the authorities fail to protect the citizens, what if the transition movement fails to change society in a controlled way. We will assume that bad things will happen and look for ways to cope with them.

It is personal – we are not here to save the world – we want to primarily save ourselves. That is every being’s primary focus. But working with a group is the most efficient way to achieve things. Humans have a history of cooperation (when it benefits the individual).

What crisis are there ahead in 20-30 years? Climate change, energy/fuel crisis, huge migration, ecological collapse, nature disasters, economy collapse, chemical toxins, fascist nationalistic governments, war, epidemics, increased criminality?

Venue: Hästekasen Farm
Four days of:
– Deep discussions
– Workshops
– Documentaries
– Lectures.

We will start at the fears of each of us.
We will ask ourselves what is the nature of the “good life” we are seeking. What possible obstacles are in our way ro reach that “good life”.
Each participant must prepare a presentation/lecture of 10-15 minutes (excl Q&A), picking a topic from the prepared list.
This is a “lean-forward” event, you must contribute.

METHOD OF MEETINGS
Sessions of 60 minutes, with mini breaks of 60 seconds (open windows/stand up).
– Mostly sociocracy (circle discussion)
– No more than 12 in each discussion/workshop.
Roles: Off topic controller, Word divider, Summarizer – Always one person summarizing the discussion. Notes saved on a wall.
– “Speachround” can be demanded any time, which means everybody share 120 seconds of their opinion about what we are talking about right at the moment

SCHEDULE:
DAY 0 – travel day
19.00 Dormitory and unpack
20.00 Common dinner

DAY 1
8.00 Breakfast
9.00 START

1) Start with a mini workshop about about LEARNING.
– How does learning work, how can it be done effective. 
(Skill, knowledge, attitude) What areas of knowledge will be touched?
– Personal note book.

2) Plan the evaluation and summary:
– Summary board (a 6m2 wall specifically designed for this).
– Personal notebook
– Photo
– Film (using also notebooks and summary board).
– Interview with participants.
– Questionnaire and votes on selected issues.

2b) Selecting a summarizer (or two), board writers.

3) PERSONAL THOUGHTS – Discussion/sharing
(Everybody has seen the documentary: There is now tomorrow)
– Fears and hopes of the coming week (post it presentation).
– Future Threats to Your Quality of Life.

4a) RESILIENCE – DEFINITION – mini lecture
4b) MASLOWS PYRAMID of needs.

4c) Selecting: Off topic guard, word divider…

Discussions:
5) THE PUBLIC NARRATIVE ON SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT: Media, School, Authorities, Business, Popular Culture – Does their story match with your sense of what’s happening?

Main topics:
1. IDENTIFYING MAIN PROBLEMS  & FUTURE WORST CASE SCENARIOS
How do you predict the future, when it comes to:

1: 1 ECOLOGY
1: 2 ENERGY
1: 3 ECONOMY (MACRO) – Tax, Welfare, currencies, world regions.
1:4 MAKROPOLITICS – ENERGY / ECONOMY
1:5 WAR – MILITARY / ECONOMIC

Intermission: What is a good life? 
What is your envisioned “good life”. (5 phases). What do you need? What do you want?
Discussion followed by a personal list presented on the summary board.

1: 6 A STATE IN CRISIS – HISTORICAL EXAMPLES.
– When a state fails – how does it happen.
– How is the state a co-player in the creation of a resilient society?
– Exercise: “how to” dismantle democracy.
1: 7 HEALTH CARE – ACCESS TO WELFARE RESOURCES
How does the future look like?

1: 8 TECHNOLOGY – ELECTRICITY, INTERNET, CAR, ELECTRIC MACHINES, DIESEL / FOSSIL ENGINES – how will it look in the future.

2. THE CITY – RESOURCES / INFRASTRUCTURE – POSSIBLE?
2:1 How do we handle crises? Historically.
2:2 What is the size of the cities’ resource acquisition area? What will be the first / biggest deficiencies?

SUMMARY of point 1 & 2:
COLLAPSE / DE-GROWTH, TIME PERSPECTIVE
Four scenarios:
(+environment +energy)
(+environment -energy)
(+energy  -environment)
(-energy -environment)

DAY 2
3. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS – PERSONAL STRATEGIES
EMPOWERMENT – How do you stay inspired and active and meaningful and involved while preparing for the future and the lifestyle you are looking for.

3:2 MEDICAL CARE without hospitals
3:3 PERSONAL HEALTH

3: 4 RESIDENCE: MOVABLE – unmoveable

3: 5 ESCAPE – THEORETICAL WORKSHOP EXERCISE (protection,heat, food, movement, defence)
3: 6 GENERALIST – SPECIALIST
3: 7 GEOGRAPHICAL PLACE – ACCOMMODATION

3: 8 PERSONAL ECONOMICS – EMPLOYMENT / LOANS / INVESTMENT
3: 8: TRADE
3: 9 CONSUMER – PRODUCER – YOUR OPPORTUNITIES
3: 9: 1 PERSONAL NEEDS – TECHNOLOGY, ACCOMMODATION

4. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS


4: 1 FOOD / SMALL SCALE FARMING
4: 2 ANIMAL HEALTH
4: 3 AREAS, SOIL QUALITY

4: 4 ACCOMMODATION:
4: 4: 1 WAGON
4: 4: 2 ECOLOGICAL SIMPLE HOUSE

4: 5 HEATING
4: 6 WATER / WASTE

4: 7 PROPERTY OWNING – RULES
Partition, Building, Ownership

5. DEALING WITH
Theft, crime, weak government, weak welfare and security, militias, war, migration…

6. IDEOLOGY – ETHICS – Attitudes to violence / defense

DAY 3
EXTRA DAY 

DAY 4
7. ORGANIZATION – NETWORKING
7: 1 COUNTRY SIDE BUILDING, VILLAGE, FARM
7: 1: 1 COLLECTIVE – RULES – GOVERNANCE – GROUP UNITY – VALUES
Psychology, group dynamics vs. individual needs, cultural chocks

8. SUMMARY

9. PERSONAL STRATEGIES

OBJECTIVE
– Inspire to thoughts and action
– Spread knowledge
– Create networks
– Plan a more practical future workshop

HOMEWORK before workshops
Prepare a 5-10 minute presentation on any of the topics below that you are strongly interested in or have personal experience with.
Use sketches, pictures, drawings, graphics, text with a text size of at least 7 cm (put on the wall).

Choose subject:
How is money created?
An analysis of how the interest rate will develop.
Describe an alternative GDP tool.
Describe the logistics and content of food production.
How long will today’s oil, coal, gas, uranium last?
How many % of things can be recycled on a large scale.
How do you stay inspired and active and meaningful and involved.
How can you live without money.
Describe the civil war in Ukraine or in Yugoslavia (ground level).
How do you kill and chop an animal (different ways).
Describe how great powers / empires collapse.
Describe how to build a 12V system with solar cell / wind power
Describe a utopia of a future 1-million city.
Make a psychologic description of a western society citizen.
Anything about medical care without a hospital.
Anything about medicinal plants.
Describe how a CSA agreement / organization could look.
Describe cultivation zones and what to grow there.
Anything about cultivation.
Anything about food.
Describe how much food / area different pets need.
Describe soil quality.
Describe a wagon that you can live in.
Describe what is required to get building permits for a year-round house.
Describe the development of crime in the past 30 years.
Describe demographics of city, rural, urban area.
Propose a regulatory framework for a collective.
Why can you not borrow money to start a company that creates biodiversity.
How is GDP calculated?
Why is oil paid in dollars.
How long will the current oil be enough / used.

TOPICS
In what areas do you think there are rapid / radical collapses / changes
(in 5-7 years)?
– Economics
– Ecology
– Energy
– Immigration

What changes do you think will happen in the following areas:
– Resource allocation
– Poverty
– Transport options
– Food quality
– Environmental quality
– Climate policy.
– Power supply
– Drinking water
– Drainage
– Unemployment
– Diseases / epidemics
– Government regulation / control
– Supranational agreements
– Immigration
– Emigration
– Population
– Urbanization
– Crime
– NationaLism
– War / Peace
– Import / Trade
– Democracy / Freedom
– Technology
– Free market.

Questions
– How are you getting hurt from a potential financial crash?
– What are the basic skills / skills that society needs in a negative future scenario, with “decline”?
– What is your knowledge / skills in a negative future scenario?
– Who will become unemployed in a growing society?
– What do you think is the biggest future threat to your quality of life?
– Where and how do you want to live in 20 years?
– How much of your income is clean and healthy food worth?
– How many kilos of food do you think you could produce in your spare time?
– Which machines do not you want to do without? Rank.
– What do you think is the biggest threat to your health in the future?

Films:

Age of stupid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpSdPP9b0pc

The four horsemen:

Origins:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf4vJKZXxn8